SurveyUSA just released a batch of polls undertaken on behalf of Roll Call which tested seven rematches from 2006. Three of them covered races which feature Democratic challengers who came heartbreaking close to victory last time. The news looks very, very good all around. (Full polling summary available as PDF. James’s roundup of the Dem incumbent polls is here.)
First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Seals (D): 52
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin’ A.
Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):
Larry Kissell (D): 49
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41
Thomas Hill (L): 6
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4%)
Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.
And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):
Eric Massa (D): 51
Randy “Shotgun” Kuhl (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain’t exactly considered the heart of Obama country.
All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think – Marky Mark “Capt.” Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can’t wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!
I’ll wait on the crosstabs before getting too excited. It does seem odd that Seals is doing that much better in an independent poll than his own internal. If these numbers are correct it seems to be a sign of a big wave election.
WISCONSIN’S 8TH
Congressional race
Rep. Steve Kagen (D) 54
John Gard (R) 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S 1ST
Congressional race
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 50
Jeb Bradley (R) 41
PENNSYLVANIA’S 4TH
Congressional race
Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 54
Melissa Hart (R) 42
INDIANA’S 9TH
Congressional race
Rep. Baron Hill (D) 53
Mike Sodrel (R) 38
Especially amazing for NY-29 considering that the DCCC hasn’t really stepped in much yet. All three of these districts were supposed to be more of the tossup/slight Republican lean ones as well, so if we take these, Dems are going to take a large number of seats.
and SUSA obliged.
Kirk is going to insane in this poll. “SUSA is a librul kool aid drinking organization that hates America.” Although this might explain why Kirk went nuts on the previous poll.
if the poll is tomorrow instead of the debate. I will hold off celebrations for now. McCain will go negative and never underestimate the gullibility of American voters to rightwing propaganda.
I wish SUSA would do a poll of NJ-05. I’d like to see how Dennis Shulman is faring against right-winger Scott Garrett. Do you think Obama’s coattails will do Shulman huge favors in this conservative, R+5 district?
They’re all good Democrats too.
How much of a lead does a challenger have to have before the DCCC decides he or she doesn’t need any more help?
all these polls… its like Christmas, the 4th of July and my birthday all in one! woot!
why didnt they poll WA-08? They have polled that race before, so why was it not included in this round?